AdMob Droid Metrics Reported in GigaOn Don’t Make Sense

Regular readers are aware that I’m always skeptical of market share and other mobile device usage data based on what sometimes seems like questionable research designs and even more questionable claims based on data based on results from those designs. That said, I often find these reports interesting because they do make one think a bit more about what is really happening out there in the mobile technology world.

As a newbie Android phone owner (Droid) and user, I found this item from GigaOm interesting…

AdMob Data Reveals Android’s Growth, Device Market Share

This makes sense even without conducing a survey. More Android-based phones are on sales from more carriers. So, it seems natural that its marketshare would increase by some measureable amount. GigaOm should be commended for noting that: As always, the data from AdMob which serves display and text ads on 15,000 mobile websites and applications, is limited in scope but is broad enough to be a barometer for the larger market trends.

Here’s an item GigaOm highlights that makes me wonder what we’re really seeing in AdMob’s data (FYI: Google recently announced they are acquring AdMob): Motorola Droid launched on November 6 already represented 24 percent of all Android requests in AdMob’s network worldwide even though the device is available only in the US.. This data was taken on or around November 18. So, this means that in less than two weeks, the Droid is responsible for nearly a quarter of all Android AdMob traffic even though the Droid is only available from one carrier (Verizon) and one country (the US). Since we can be pretty sure that the Droid does not represent 24% of all Android phones, it probably means that new Droid owners played a lot with various apps that AdMob serves. It will be interesting to see if this number drops a bit after the new year.

Two bullet points later we learn that Android phones account for 20% of all smartphone AdMob traffic in the US. The Droid information is based on worldwide numbers. So, we can’t make a direct inference. However, if we assume that the worldwide market is, for the sake of argument, four times larger than the U.S. market (this is probably a gross underestimate), and the Droid accounts for 24% of the worldwide market, does this mean that the Droid accounted for nearly 100% of the U.S. Android-based requests?

Here’s some numbers pulled out of a hat to illustrate the issue:
- 100 million AdMob requests recorded worldwide
- Droid accounted for 24% or 24 million requests
- If the U.S. market is 1/4th of the worldwide market, 25 million requests came from the US
- All 24 million Droid AdMob requests came from the U.S., so it accounts for nearly all US traffic

See the problem?

AllFacebook Marketing Conference returns to San Francisco on June 28-29! Join us and get a how-to guide for marketing to Facebook’s 800 million users. A full agenda will be announced soon. Keep an eye on our event site for more information. Special early pricing is available for only $249 until this Wednesday, February 15, so register today.