Get your pins and tweets ready, marketers, because holiday shopping season is about to begin. To ease stress for retailers, Adobe has created a predictive tool that forecasts sales growth figures and online shopping spikes for the upcoming season, also factoring in referral traffic from social media sites.
The Adobe Digital Index 2012 Online Shopping Forecast shows data from more than 150 billion website visits to more than 500 of its retail customers over the past six years.
Social media referrals to retail sites are expected double, the company reports, and Pinterest will take the lead as the fastest-growing site for driving traffic. Referrals from the virtual pinboard should increase from 7 percent to 14 percent of referral sales.
Much of the traffic will be coming from mobile devices, which are expected to bring in 21 percent of total online sales. Out of this number, 13.5 percent will come from tablets, 6.5 percent will come from smartphones, and one percent will come from other devices such as e-readers.
The biggest shopping day of 2012 will be Cyber Monday, when online revenue will grow 18 percent year-over-year to $2 billion.
Brick-and-Click retailers, or those who have both brick-and-mortar and online stores, will benefit the most from Cyber Monday, bringing in nearly 540 percent more revenue than they would on an average day in 2012.
By comparison, online-only retailers will see a 210-percent increase on Cyber Monday compared to an average day during other times of the year.
Black Friday (November 23) sales are expected to increase of 12 percent, year-over-year and should be the second largest shopping day of 2012.
Consumers can expect to find the best deals on Free Shipping Day (December 17), when online retailers will offer deep discounts and guarantee delivery by Christmas Eve.
Sales on this day are expected to grow 12 percent year-over-year, in part because the day will fall on a Monday, which historically has been the busiest shopping day of the week. This is the first time that Free Shipping Day has fallen on a Monday since the shopping holiday was introduced five years ago.
Another high-grossing day is Green Monday (December 10), on which the average retailer should see a sales increase of nearly 150 percent compared to other times of the year. Adobe expects sales on this day to grow by seven percent compared to 2011.
“Rather than report on what happened after the fact this holiday season, we are leveraging big data captured by the Adobe Marketing Cloud to accurately forecast the trends before they happen,” explained Adobe exec Brad Rencher in a statement. “This helps our retail customers plan for consumer spending activity online to better monetize their holiday campaigns.”