Gartner & IDC Agree About Mobile Marketshare in 2015 but Disagree About 2011

In March, I took a look at IDC;s mobile platform forecast for 2015 and was fascinated by their prediction that Windows Phone would be the second largest in marketshare.

In 2015: Android Rules, Symbian is Gone, iPhone is Flat, & Windows Phone is #2?

Now, All Things Digital reports on Gartner’s 2015 mobile platform forecast which also has Windows Phone as having the second largest marketshare.

Windows Phone 7 Will Overtake iOS by 2015, Says Gartner

I placed IDC’s and Gartner’s 2011 and 2015 forecasts side-by-side in the table above so we could see how much they agree (or not). Curiously, IDC and Gartner agree more about what 2015 will look like than 2011. Their 2015 forecasts are within a percentage point or two. However, their forecast for this year (2011) differ significantly for Android and iOS (iPhone/iPad).

IDC says that Android will have a 39.5% marketshare this year while Gartner says it will be 22.7% (a difference of 16.8). The 2011 forecast for iOS is less dramatic but still appears significantly different. IDC says iOS device will have a 15.7% marketshare this year while Garter says it will be 19.4% (a difference of 3.7). Both analysts, however, see Android as the dominant mobile platform in 2015 with Windows Phone a distant number 2 in marketshare. Still, Microsoft and Nokia must be encouraged by these forecasts. Now, if only Nokia would actually deliver these magical future Windows Phone devices.

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