How Accurate Were Hulu Viewers’ Oscar Predictions?

When I heard that Hulu had opened up their site to viewers’ Oscar predictions I was extremely intrigued. During the Super Bowl they invited viewers to rate the commercials and the results were right on. I wondered how accurate their Oscar predictions would be. Turns out, Hulu viewers did a pretty good job of predicting the selections of The Academy.

Out of 24 possible categories listed in the Hulu Oscar’s section, Hulu viewers accurately predicted the winners of 13 categories. You may be thinking, “Yeah, well they still were wrong in 11 categories.” However, the categories that they predicted inaccurately included Best Short Film (Animated), Best Documentary (Short Subject), Best Short Film (Live Action), and Best Documentary Feature which, let’s face it, are categories in which most people haven’t even seen any of the nominees. Best Cinematography was a close-call for Hulu viewers, with 34% of the vote going to ‘True Grit’ and 31% going to ‘Inception’. Inception was the official winner in the end, but Hulu was pretty darn close to getting that one right too.

Hulu viewers were right on their prediction for Best Picture with ‘The King’s Speech’ raking in 34% of the votes, followed by ‘Inception’ at 19%; and they were overwhelmingly correct when it came to Best Actor and Actress– Natalie Portman got 84% of the vote and Colin Firth got 58% (followed by Jesse Eisenberg with 14%). They correctly predicted Christian Bale with 56% of the vote as well, but something seems to have gone wrong in the category of Best Supporting Actress. Hulu viewers clearly wanted Haillee Steinfeld to win for her performance in ‘True Grit’, giving her 44% of the vote. Helena Bonham Carter came in second place with 22%, Amy Adams came in third place with 17% for her performance in ‘The Fighter’, and winner Melissa Leo came in fourth place with only 15% of the vote.

For the sake of comparison, let’s look at HitFix’s Gregory Ellwood’s predictions. Ellwood had eight inaccurate predictions, and he is “in the biz”, as it were. I think it is also important to point out that Ellwood’s predictions were posted on the Hulu Oscar’s page, next to each voting category, and I think this swayed viewers who hadn’t seen all the films in each category. For instance, Ellwood erred with the same choices for Cinematography, Short Documentary, Animated Short and Live Action Short as Hulu viewers did. I think it would be interesting to see how Hulu viewers’ predictions would have fared had Ellwood’s predictions not been posted.

How did your predictions stack up against the real winners of this year’s Academy Awards? Did you do better or worse than Hulu’s viewers?

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