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Apple may sell less iPods this holiday season than last, which would mark the first time that’s ever happened, Silicon Alley Insider reports.

“Wall Street expects Apple to ship 18.6 million iPods this quarter,” said Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster in the article. “That would represent a 16% year-over-year decline, from 22.1 million iPods shipped during the December quarter last year.”

The flip side of this is, of course, the iPhone, which has already sold over 10 million units and combines an iPod Touch with a cell phone. (It was actually designed in the other direction—the iPod Touch is missing the cellular radio—but the net effect is the same.) But the message is clear: the iPod is no longer the growth driver for Apple; instead, it’s the Mac and the iPhone, according to the report.