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Shatzkin’s Predictions for 2010

Publishing commentator Mike Shatzkin has just posted his predictions for Mike Shatzkin.jpgpublishing in 2010. Basically, he sees digital proliferating, authors taking more control over their own careers, and the big publishers admitting to some confusion. Here are a few highlights from Shatzkin’s 13 predictions.

“At least one major book will have several different enhanced eBook editions,” says Shatzkin. And in fact publishers have already announced plans to do this, especially during the discussion from a few weeks ago of delaying eBook releases.

Shatzkin also predicts that “By the end of 2010, ebook sales will routinely constitute at least 20% of the units moved for midlist and the lower tier of bestsellers and at least 10% of the units for really big bestsellers.” If this one came true, things in 2011 could be really exciting for eBooks.

He also sees the end of eBooks delays: “the experiment with ‘windowing’ ebooks–withholding them from release when the hardcover comes out–will end as increasing evidence persuades publishers and agents that ebook sales (at any price) spur print book sales (at any price), not cannibalize or discourage them and, furthermore, that this withholding effort does nothing to restrain Amazon’s proclivity for discounting.” That would be nice.

Check out the full post for the other ten predictions.

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