Todd’s Prediction: Android Phones Sales Will Overtake Windows Mobile by 2Q 2010

If you look at the Canalys smartphone market share charts in this O’Reilly Radar item…

Who’s Winning the Smartphone Wars?

…you can’t help but notice that Windows Mobile has been hurt the most compared to other smartphone platforms. As you might expect RIM (BlackBerry) and Apple (iPhone) are the big winners in unit shipment growth when comparing Q2 2008 to Q2 2009. RIM’s shipments increased 41.6% while Apple’s exploded by 626.9%. Nokia is holding near even with a -2.1% decrease. But, Microsoft’s Windows Mobile shows a huge decline of -28.7% in units shipped and also has the fewest units shipped of the big four platforms compared.

Google’s Android can’t be compared since it did not emerge until the end of Q3 2008. However, with more carriers picking up Android phones, more Android phone models becoming available and a healthy Android development cycle, my prediction is that Android shipments will overtake Windows Mobile by Q2 2010. My prediction is that Windows Mobile unit sales will fall to less than 2.5 million by then while Android phone shipments will near 3 million. Check back with me next August

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